Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
